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Continuation of Airline Article
The worst-hit airlines,
including United, America West and US Airways, have sought relief in
the second tranche of federal aid, a $10bn loan guarantee scheme.
But focusing on the scheme as the solution to the carriers' woes
misses the point: the airline industry
was already one wave away from drowning in red ink.
As Tom Gallagher, an investment banker at Wachovia, puts it,
analysts had already been expecting a $2bn annual loss for the
carriers last summer. "Then September 11 happened, and the airlines
didn't have to explain why they were losing so much money."
The traditional airline business model
was already becoming unviable because of the convergence of several
trends: changing buying patterns for business travel, the growth of
low-cost carriers and the acceptance of internet purchasing.
This combination has caused many to ask whether the traditional airline
cost structure can ever support such a diminished revenue outlook.
"One at a time they will all have to head for the bankruptcy
courts," concludes one airline
economist.
The economics of airlines have long
been tough. As Robert Crandall, former chairman of American Airlines,
observed, "The airline industry
has lost as much money as it has made since the Wright brothers
invented manned flight at Kitty Hawk back in 1903."
In January a study by Morgan Stanley and Stern Stewart put some
statistical flesh on that anecdote. "The industry has not
earned a return exceeding the cost of capital over most of the last
two business cycles since airline
deregulation in 1978 and it creates little wealth."
Carol Hallett, president of the Air Transport Association, noted
recently: "The bottom line is this, the economic underpinnings
of the airline industry are highly
fragile even at the best of times."
Those times came in the late 1990s - a period of record profits.
Even so, success during that period has helped sow current problems.
"You might say the change imperative was put on hold during the
economic bubble that characterised the late 1990s," says Mr
Carty. "It is interesting to look at the yields or the amount
per passenger mile during the last decade. The line is almost flat -
the only break is a blip during the 1998-1999 timeframe, which
coincided with the bubbles in telecoms and technology IPOs, in the
stock market and every other excess of the period."
According to the American Express monthly air fare monitor, the
ratio between business and leisure fares widened from 2.5 times in
1996 to five times, as business fares rose more than 75 per cent
since 1997.
Business travellers have started to rebel - average business fares
fell last year for the first time since 1994. The high prices teamed
with pressures on business costs have made companies eager to
exploit cheaper fares. Amex estimates more than 40 per cent of
corporate tickets are cheaper advanced purchase fares, up from 25
per cent two years ago.
The internet has made searching easier and pricing more transparent.
Although the permanence of the shift to bargain-hunting is hard to
gauge, Michael E. Levine, a former senior airline
executive and academic at Yale, suggests the industry is reaching a
tipping point "where it changes from someone buying a
[discount] ticket because it is adventurous, to a point where
everybody is doing it".
Interest in cheap deals has combined with availability. While
low-cost carriers such as Southwest have been around for some time,
new entrants such as JetBlue have added to critical mass and are
moving into long-haul, says Kevin Mur phy at Morgan Stanley.
"It's a "It's the last thing the legacy carriers
needed."
Geoff Campbell, finance director at American, highlighted the
threat. "Last year in the second quarter about 65 per cent of
domestic available seat miles was in direct competition with low
cost carriers. This year it was 75 per cent."
Concern that revenues may never rebound to levels that conferred
profitability has prompted Mr Carty to conclude: "We simply
cannot wait for people to get over their 9/11 jitters or for a
cyclical economic recovery to bail us out. We must face up to the
need for some fundamental changes in the way we do business."
They may have to start by looking at their cost structure. Airlines
are haunted by the long-term wage contracts signed during the boom.
Last week, for example, United Airlines
reported that in spite of an 18 per cent fall in employee numbers,
salary rates rose 17 per cent year on year. Mr Carty concedes:
"It is no secret that labour costs have greatly outpaced
productivity."
At the same time, though, airlines are
facing cost pressures outside their control - added security and the
hassle factor at airports, which ranges from customers forced to
remove shoes for swabbing to extra frisking. Airports have to
introduce new baggage screening by the end of the year. According to
Susan Donofrio, analyst at Deutsche Bank, this could cause delays
during the peak holiday season and put off revenue recovery until
2003.
So what is the way out of this? Confusion remains. Continental
argues that the business model is not yet broken. Northwest has
survived better than most, cutting capacity and tweaking business
fares. American, by contrast, is contemplating a radical rethink to
compete more effectively with airlines
such as Southwest.
United's president, Rono Dutta, is more circumspect. "We looked
at major restructuring, such as shrinking or moving downscale to
more leisure products, but rejected these as unworkable. As
difficult as it is to be a high-cost carrier in the high-end market,
it is worse to be a high-cost carrier in the low-end market."
The industry is not short of initiatives. Airlines
have tried everything from dumping excess aircraft in the Arizona
desert, hacking travel agency commissions, ending discounts for the
elderly, cutting airline food,
introducing cheaper walk-on business fares, shifting to electronic
ticketing, changing corporate discounts, cutting capacity and
changing schedules through to pressing unions for wage cuts.
Industry bodies have looked for tax cuts. Investment banks prefer
the option of consolidation. For Mr Murphy, the new economics have
only one solution. "The airline
sector will increasingly move towards consolidation as the only
viable way to achieve a return on capital."
In spite of the plethora of measures, confusion and a
finger-crossing hope in a cyclical rebound still prevails across the
industry. But with the industry carrying more than $110bn of debt
and bleeding cash, that approach looks wildly optimistic.
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